Calculating the risks of Kershaw on short rest

Here’s a breakdown of some facts and figures focusing on pitchers going on shorter-than-normal rest (less than four days) in the postseason.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’re taking into account only pitchers who started on short rest after making a start. Kansas City’s Yordano Ventura technically started on two days’ rest Friday in the American League Division Series against the Angels, but he did so after throwing just one-third of an inning in relief on Tuesday in the AL Wild Card Game vs. the A’s.

• Since 2004, starters on short rest are 5-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 20 starts in the postseason. Understandably, the area most affected by short rest is length. Just six of the 20 starters in those games have lasted more than six innings, and Detroit’s Justin Verlander did so only after his Game 1 start in the ’11 ALDS was cut short by rain.

• Aside from Verlander, here is the full list of starters to pitch more than six innings on short rest in the postseason since 2004:

Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees, 2012 ALCS Game 2: 7 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 hits, 11 Ks.
Derek Lowe, Braves, 2010 NLDS Game 4: 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 hits, 8 Ks.
CC Sabathia, Yankees, 2009 WS Game 4: 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 hits, 3 Ks.
CC Sabathia, Yankees, 2009 ALCS Game 4: 8 IP, ER, 5 hits, 5 Ks.
Tim Hudson, A’s, 2005 ALDS Game 4: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 hits, 5 Ks.

As you can see, the only real dominant short-rest start in the past 10 postseasons was Sabathia’s gem against the Angels in the 2009 ALCS. A pitcher’s stuff may be there initially, but by these numbers, we can deduce that it’s clearly much harder to dominate deep into a game without at least four days off.

• Both Kershaw and the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright threw more than 100 pitches on Friday. Why is that important? Since 2000, only the Marlins’ Josh Beckett, Sabathia and Kuroda have thrown 100 pitches in a playoff game and then thrown another 100 pitches three days later. Kerhsaw managed just 91 pitches on three days’ rest in last year’s NLDS.

After throwing at least 110 pitches (Kershaw threw 110 on Friday), no pitcher since 2000 has managed to hit the century mark in his next start.

• If you go back to 1995, the numbers get much worse. There have been 67 occasions of starters going on short rest since the Wild Card era began, and those hurlers have posted a combined 16-26 mark with a 6.96 ERA.

• Teams using a starter on short rest against a team with a starter on full rest are 18-35 in the postseason since 1995. This may be the most telling statistic of all. Typically, a team won’t go to a pitcher on three days’ rest unless he’s a quality starter. Well, those quality starters have led their teams to victory on short rest barely one-third of the time.

• On 14 occasions since 1995, two short-rest starters have opposed each other in a postseason game. Sabathia and Verlander matched up in Game 3 after that soggy ALDS Game 1 in 2011. But the most recent genuine occurrence was the fateful Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, when Lowe pitched six innings of one-run ball on just two days’ rest to lead the Red Sox past their arch rivals and into the World Series. He defeated the Yankees’ Kevin Brown, who lasted 1 1/3 innings and allowed five earned runs on three days’ rest.

There was some speculation Cardinals manager Mike Matheny would bring back Wainwright to go against Kershaw in Game 4, but the St. Louis skipper is sticking with Shelby Miller as his starter.

• The most important disclaimer here is that combined ERA totals don’t necessarily tell the whole story. A handful of starters — notably Brown,

Yes, certain pitchers clearly can’t handle the taxing nature of pitching without their full rest. But judging by Kershaw’s solid effort last season, it doesn’t appear that he’s one of them.

• Since 2007, just three pitchers have started on short rest, looking to close out a series. Those three pitchers are a combined 2-0 with a 2.54 ERA, and all three helped their teams clinch that night. Along with Kershaw last season, Chris Carpenter (2011) of the Cardinals and Andy Pettitte (’09) of the Yankees were each solid on short rest in World Series clinchers.

In that same time frame, four pitchers have started on short rest, looking to stave off elimination. Carpenter — who did so in a Game 7, so his numbers apply for both categories — was the only pitcher whose team was victorious, and the other three pitchers combined to post a 4.73 ERA.

• Sabathia (2009) was the last starter to pitch multiple games within the same postseason on short rest. Since the Wild Card era began, only six pitchers have pitched two playoff games on short rest in the same year. Pettitte (1996), Baltimore’s Mike Mussina (’97), Cleveland’s Jaret Wright (’97), Brown (’98), then with San Diego, and Arizona’s Curt Schilling (2001), were the other pitchers to do so.

In their short rest starts during those seasons, those six pitchers combined to go 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA. What does that tell us? Well, for one, if a pitcher is successful on three days’ rest, there’s a good chance he’ll be able to answer the call again later in that postseason. Something to keep in mind should the Dodgers advance and want Kershaw again on short rest.

• Long gone are the days of pitchers throwing entire postseasons on three days’ rest. But it was a relatively common occurrence for much of the divisional era. Dating back to 1969 — the first year Major League Baseball split into divisions — 13 pitchers have thrown at least three playoff games on short rest in the same postseason.

Only Atlanta’s John Smoltz (1992) and Orel Hershiser (1988) made four starts in one postseason on short rest. And Hershiser went 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA in those outings, on his way to NLCS and World Series MVP honors for the Dodgers.