The Angels open the playoffs in 11 days. They plan to put Josh Hamilton in the lineup and hope for the best.
The Dodgers are all but certain to open the playoffs in 12 days. They plan to put Hanley Ramirez in the lineup and hope for the best.
It is astounding, really, that we could be this close to October, with the Angels having no idea what they might get out of Hamilton.
The Dodgers have a pretty good idea of what they might get out of Ramirez, if his body parts cooperate: a dangerous bat and a dangerous glove. He batted .370 last September, then .500 in the first round of the playoffs.
Ramirez is batting .362 this September. The Dodgers will take those three or four at-bats, any of which could make the difference in a postseason game, then take him out of the game and replace him with Miguel Rojas, for a huge defensive upgrade at shortstop.
The injury catalogs for Ramirez and Hamilton over the last two years are painfully comprehensive.
For Ramirez: right thumb, left thigh, right shoulder, eighth rib, left arm, left hand, left leg, right hand, right leg, right abdomen, right elbow. For Hamilton: left shoulder, right thigh, back, right wrist, right ankle, left leg, left thumb, left knee, left hand, right shoulder, rib cage. (Thanks to Baseball Prospectus for the medical charts.)
Ramirez is playing, at least for now. Hamilton is not.
Ramirez played 86 games last season. Hamilton has played 89 this season.
Hamilton has had three at-bats and zero innings in the field in the last 16 days. He has been hampered by soreness in his right shoulder and inflammation in his rib cage.
The Angels are confident that Hamilton will be ready for the playoffs. They cannot have much confidence about what he will do.
His .414 slugging percentage is a career low, barely ahead of the .406 mark of catcher Chris Iannetta. His .331 on-base percentage is lower than the .339 mark of Collin Cowgill.
The minor league seasons are over, so the Angels cannot send Hamilton on a rehabilitation assignment to regain his timing. Yet, so long as Hamilton is healthy enough to play, the Angels insist they have given zero thought to keeping him out of the lineup or, for that matter, keeping him off the playoff roster.
The Angels will gamble on a good streak from one of the streakiest hitters in baseball.
“When Josh gets rolling for a seven-, 10-, 14-day period, he can carry an offense,” General Manager Jerry Dipoto said. “If he’s healthy, you would be insane not to want that.”
The Angels have won with Hamilton, but they have won without him too. Their winning percentage, before Saturday: .618 with him, .615 without him.
“That presence is important,” Manager Mike Scioscia said. “No matter how well we’ve done when we miss Josh, we’re better with him in the lineup.
“What he brings from even the defensive component makes us better. He’s a Gold Glove-caliber defender.”
Advanced defensive metrics, finicky though they are, tend to like Cowgill in left field better than Hamilton. But no matter: the Angels are doubling down on a chance for a streak, like the one where Hamilton spent much of spring training sidelined because of a calf injury, then batted .500 with four extra-base hits in the first week of this season, or the one in which he batted .350 with four home runs in the 2010 American League Championship Series.
He was the AL most valuable player that year, with a 1.044 OPS. Four years later, his OPS is .745, and there can be a legitmate debate, at least, over whether the Angels might be better with someone else in left field.
He sees a fastball 40% of the time, by far the lowest percentage of any major league hitter, according to Fangraphs, because he has yet to solve the riddle of the breaking ball that sweeps low and away.
Dipoto sees hope, and a decreased vulnerability toward the left-handed relief specialists that have owned Hamilton. Hamilton batted .201 against left-handers last season, and 14.5% of the balls he put in play against them were line drives. He is batting .330 against left-handers this season, with 26.7% of balls in play as line drives.
“That’s a remarkable turnaround,” Dipoto said. “Making adjustments is possible for Josh Hamilton. We’ve seen the majestic power in batting practice. We’ve seen the hot streaks where he gets rolling and he can fire out 10 hits in a four-game stretch, with impact. He can run the bases energetically. He’s done a lot of things that give you glimpses into the capability he has. Unfortunately, he’s dealt with a lot of small stuff.
“Josh is prone to the slump. He is also prone to incredible highs. If he’s able to do the things he does, then we would be insane not to carry him on the team. We don’t have other guys like that.”
Hamilton might have been the brightest star in Texas, but the Angels have Mike Trout. If Hamilton really can do something Trout cannot, October would be an opportune time to show it.
Copyright © 2014, Los Angeles Times
