Mats Hummels, left, and Danny Ings, middle, are unlikely to move, but Juan Cuadrado, right, should complete his move to Chelsea.
Ahead of the last day of the transfer window, there’s something that needs to be said first: The very nature of the current market means we’re highly unlikely to see any resembling the drama which saw Fernando Torres join Chelsea and Andy Carroll move to Liverpool four years ago, or even the chaos of Peter Odemwingie turning up — but not signing — at QPR at the same point in 2013.
There just hasn’t been the same mobility behind the scenes, the same drive. Many clubs are content to sit and see things out. So, what is the state of play? What are the storylines that have any chance of adding a bit of drama to the day?
The mystery of Manchester United’s transfer plans
This is the big question about this window, partially because it’s so easy to question why an underperforming United are where they are — fourth — in the table.
Given that the sides with similar money — Chelsea and Manchester City have recruited Wilfried Bony and Juan Cuadrado respectively — have pressed ahead with moves to improve and given that United have such obvious areas of their team they need to strengthen, why have they not made any signings? It is really quite baffling, especially because it was also one of the big questions when the summer window closed.
Part of the reason, sources state, is the nature of the business they’re trying to do. Both the club-owning Glazer family and Louis van Gaal are apparently in agreement that, if United can’t get their top targets in the three main positions — central defence, defensive midfield and right-back — then they’re better off waiting.
Injury problems have restricted Kevin Strootman to just seven appearances this season.
Van Gaal’s huge admiration for Kevin Strootman is well known and, since Roma wouldn’t let him leave this window even before the surgery he underwent in recent days, a deal in that area was always going to be unlikely in January. Similarly, there is now an acceptance that Southampton’s Nathaniel Clyne is probably unavailable until the summer.
As regards defenders Mats Hummels of Borussia Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao’s Aymeric Laporte, however, United have at least received encouragement that there is some room to manoeuvre. They want one of those two and, while either moving is still seen as unlikely in this window, they are the deals with best chance of making something big happening on Monday.
Watch this space, even if it is still probable that the space in United’s defence will remain unfilled.
Pochettino getting the backing to match his progress
Back in November, it seemed inevitable that Tottenham Hotspur would be the busiest in January, given the genuine problems Mauricio Pochettino seemed to be having with his squad. It just wasn’t working.
However, it has since started to click as the effect of Pochettino’s coaching has taken hold. Now, although the team still have some way to go, the manager’s approach of actually improving what he’s got has been so impressive that Spurs’ only real issue comes up front.
It’s the one area, then, where Spurs may see a bit of business but much will depend on whether Emmanuel Adebayor finally moves. Paris Saint Germain are understood to be considering his situation and, should he leave White Hart Lane, Tottenham may make a bid for Danny Ings of Burnley.
The risks of sitting tight
Tottenham could face competition for Ings from Liverpool, but that very situation throws up another question. Given Brendan Rodgers’ obvious need for someone to put the ball in the net beyond Daniel Sturridge, it is somewhat surprising that a loan back to Turf Moor , which has since been ruled illegal, has even been discussed as part of any potential deal with Burnley.
The Ings example is a reminder that the moves that don’t happen can be just as important as those that do when it comes to windows. While the example of Faustino Asprilla moving to Premier League title-chasing Newcastle in 1996 is always thrown up as a transfer which destabilised a team, there are as many cases of clubs ruing a failure to buy.
Man United have already been discussed above but there is also Arsenal’s lack of a midfield presence and Everton’s dire straits in defence. These clubs are all maintaining a relatively precarious balance while the two big boys, Man City and Chelsea, have made big signings.
Loans prove the lone source of intrigue
While most clubs hesitate to actually spend money amid the distorted values of the January market, it does mean that loan moves have become much more popular, and explains why they tend to happen later. All of a sudden, opportunities will present themselves, as players not getting many minutes will seek temporary action elsewhere.
One prime example was Romelu Lukaku’s loan move to Everton from Chelsea on deadline day in September 2013. That had barely been spoken about just two days beforehand and shows how quickly these things can happen, especially since there are generally fewer complications to any such deal.
After scoring 16 goals during a season-long loan at Everton, Romelu Lukaku joined the Goodison Park club permanently in July 2014.
This area may provide the biggest surprises on Monday, as squad members who have barely had any impact on this season are given a temporary opportunity at a team that makes sense for them. It also allows clubs lower in the table to go for acceptable short-term fixes to areas they would like a longer time to consider.
Everton manager Roberto Martinez may well be a big mover here again, given how much he has used the loan market before, while Southampton could also seek to add depth.
Chelsea’s dominoes finally falling
The deals haven’t been confirmed yet, but barring unlikely late mishaps, it’s only a matter of time. Once Andre Schurrle’s exit is confirmed, Chelsea can press ahead with the signature of Juan Cuadrado from Fiorentina, and Mohamed Salah will leave, too.
Should all go to plan, it will be the fourth consecutive window in which Jose Mourinho has evolved and streamlined his squad towards his ideals, despite earlier protestations he would not do business. Cuadrado offers genuine innovation in attack but would also give the team more defensive balance.
Chelsea have often been a little too open against better teams with just Nemanja Matic and Cesc Fabregas in the middle, and the Colombian would alleviate that with his ability to tuck in centrally, which was something beyond pretty much all their other wide players.